How to bet on tennis with minimal risk

08.03.2021

Today we will discuss how to bet on sports and, in particular, tennis, with minimal risks. Each person has their own level of acceptable risk. Someone is ready to put everything on the line to hit the jackpot. And someone, on the contrary, seeks to create maximum insurance in order to reduce the likelihood of loss.

How can you minimize risks in sports betting?

If you are ready to win a little, but with the maximum probability, then this material is for you. How can you reduce the risks of a single bet on tennis or any other sport?

There are probably three main options:

  1.  Low odds betting

This is not a very good mathematical model of the game. By systematically placing quotes in the range of 1.01-1.30, you risk a large amount to win a small one. But, of course, you will win much more often than when betting on odds of about 2.00 and higher. Actually, the frequency of wins can be estimated based on the probabilities inherent in the odds themselves.

100 / 1.01 = 99%

100 / 1.30 = 76,9%

That is, the indicator of your wins will lie in the range from 77% to 99%, depending on the average quotes, even if you bet purely at random, by odds. But the probability inherent in the coefficient does not always reflect the real probability. Mistakes are inevitable at a distance, and the margin inherent in the odds will gradually eat away pieces from the bankroll.

By the way, it is in low odds that, as a rule, the greatest margin is laid and they have the greatest negative mathematical expectation. Therefore, the bank will melt even faster than at rates for medium and high quotes.

And the most important thing to remember about bets on small odds: they will also lose. Even 1.01 will inevitably fly at a distance more than once or twice - somewhere there is an injury, somewhere the serve did not go, somewhere the outsider was lucky. And each such loss will have to be covered by dozens of similar rates. Not to mention the psychological consequences of such losses.

  1. Incomplete arbs

An incomplete arb is an arbitrage situation in which the probability of losing both bets remains. You can make this probability negligible, or you can expand it to 10, 20 or even more percent, depending on your personal wishes.

The essence of an incomplete arb is to place two bets on opposite outcomes and win is almost guaranteed, except in a rare case hitting a certain range of outcomes.

For example:

 

  1. Tennis game bets: TB (22.5) and TM (20.5). Only totals in games 22 and 21 will give us a defeat, all other options are guaranteed to bring profit on one of the shoulders.

 

  1. Bets on F1 (-1.5) in sets and W2 on a tennis match. The same thing: the victory will give the outsider, and if the favorite wins dry. But if the first tennis player wins 2: 1, you will lose both bets.


Of course, the odds should be higher than two (or just create a surebet, for example, 1.5 and 4.00). The bet amounts must be aligned in such a way that the output is the same winnings.

  1. Corridors

 We talked about the corridors in detail in another article. The essence of the strategy is to create a gap that gives you double profit when you hit it. If you do this in a prematch, then, as a rule, it is formed by creating risks along the shoulders of the corridor. Each bettor also controls the size of these risks independently.

An example of such a corridor: handicap on games - the favorite is F1 (-2.5) and the outsider is F2 (+5.5). Keffs here, of course, will be below two. If the favorite wins with a difference of three to six games, we find ourselves in a corridor giving a win on both shoulders. In other cases, we receive a partial refund for one of the bets.

There are also ideal corridors that provide the minimum profit for any outcome and double or triple when entering the corridor. But creating such things in a prematch is almost unrealistic.

Implementation of a tennis betting strategy with minimal risk using specific examples

Low odds tennis betting

Every day in the line you can find a bunch of options for betting on tennis with low odds from 1.01 Even if the favorite comes with “too high” odds, such as 1.40, it can be reduced by a positive handicap. It is clear that a big favorite has a much higher chance of winning and will win on average more often than an outsider. The question is whether it will turn out to be profitable in terms of money.

So, for an average odds of 1.30, the break-even point is in the region of 77% wins. If you can exceed it and maintain this level at around 4 out of 5 matches, then great - in the long run it will reward you ROI + 4%, that is, 4% profit from each bet made.

This is very good considering, that tennis, and especially its outcomes, is a bigmarket. But whether it will be possible to stably maintain 80% of cross-country ability is a moot point. Just go to the results of any game day and see how often the favorite loses the match with a low odds.

Pros and cons of low odds betting

Pros

  1. There are many options, matches every day, you can play at least every game and set;
  2. High percentage of betting traffic;
  3. You can play without deep knowledge, according to quotes.

Cons

  1. Inappropriate risks, high cost of error;
  2. Psychological burden in case of defeat;
  3. Inevitable increase in the amounts bet by players;
  4. As a rule, the highest margins and unprofitable quotes in crowded markets.


Incomplete arbs in tennis

In live it is better to play with full arbs, the same can be said about the combination of prematch live. If both shoulders of arb are placed in a prematch, then an incomplete arb is a good way to increase the profitability of the trade. Free mode fork scanners only give the arbs with the lowest profit, you have to pay for the fat. It takes some experience to find a decent fork with a 5% + yield yourself. But creating an incomplete tennis arb is elementary.

 

In this way, you can make an incomplete arb even within the same office. Any variation will suit us here, except for the range of 0-3 games in favor of Gyереr. In any other scenario, we will receive a profit of +2 731 rubles or + 13.75% of the bet amount.

And if you use the BetMAX extension and find the best odds for the selected outcomes among dozens of bookmakers, you can increase your winnings by another 10% or even more!

Pros and cons of incomplete tennis arbs

Pros

  1. Easy to use, almost no experience required;
  2. Relatively low risks in use. You can create arb, which is not satisfied with the only outcome with an accuracy of;
  3. The prospect of growth to full-fledged forks, which give profit at any outcome of the event.


Cons

  1. There are still some risks. If you're unlucky, you can get caught in a couple of unsuccessful deals in a row that will undermine the bank;
  2. Bookmakers treat arbers badly and can quickly cut the limits on the account.

Corridors in tennis betting

It is almost impossible to create a powerful tennis corridor in prematch today. The best middles should be caught live or with a combination of live prematch. Best strategy: catch breaks (taken game on someone else's serve). When a tennis player has made a break, the coefficient on his opponent is increased. At this moment, you can bet on it and wait for the reverse break. Matches in which players frequently break and serve their serve are ideal for creating lineouts.

A couple more examples.

  1. In a game of roughly equal opponents, bet the athlete who loses the first set after its end. It is especially successful if the victory in the first game was devastating, 6: 0, 6: 1 or 6: 2, in this case it will turn out to take the maximum head start on games + 3-4 or to catch a tasty odds for a handicap in a couple of games. In a decent percentage of matches, the inferior tennis player will take the second set. Then you can bet the first one to win at equal quotes, creating an excellent corridor, which will be more difficult to get into than not to get into.