What is double chance in betting
What is double chance or double outcome in sports betting? How to use this type of bet correctly, where it occurs and how it is calculated. Let's discuss today the types and nuances of double outcomes. The most delicious, as always, is at the end of the article.
What is double chance?
Double outcome betting is one of the most popular types of bets among bettors, along with match outcomes, handicaps and totals. Many bookmakers even place them in the main line of the event. Such outcomes are found in markets that imply three or more scenarios.
The most common and popular example is two out of three outcomes of a match in football or hockey. There are three possible outcomes in these events - a victory for the first team, a draw, and a victory for the second team. By placing a double chance bet, the bettor overlaps two of the three match results.
In the bookmaker's line, such bets are most often referred to as 1X, 12 and X2. Let's figure out what this means.
- 1X - a bet that “Birmingham City” will not lose the match. For this bet to pass, the home team must win or a draw in the match.
- 12 - a bet that the teams will NOT draw. For this bet to pass, the match must end with the victory of one of the teams.
- X2 - a bet on the “Derby County” team not to lose. If the guests win or keep the draw, then the bet on X2 will pass.
Very often a bet “with an X” on the outsider of the match roughly equalizes the victory of the favorite, it is an antipode bet for W1. We can see this in our example - the victory of “Birmingham” is estimated with a coefficient of 1.97, which roughly corresponds to a 50% probability. And the bet on the “Derby” not to lose goes with the odds of 1.89, that is, with a probability of about 53%.
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Important: a bet on a double outcome is always made only for the regular time of the match. Such a bet will be settled immediately after the end of regular time, and it will no longer matter what happens there in extra time, overtime or shootout.
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Where else can you find this type of bets?
Mostly double chance is used on the lines of the outcomes of football and hockey matches. It can also be found in the list of segments of the same matches - that is, a failure by one of the teams (or no draw) in a particular half, basketball quarter or period of a hockey match.
There is a double chance in other sports where it is provided draw - handball, water polo and so on. And even where they traditionally play to the victorious result, for example, in basketball or baseball, you can find a double chance in the list of regular time of the match.
In basketball, the difference in odds between pairs W1 - 1X and W2 - X2 is not very big, because the probability of overtime is relatively small. But the less effective the sport, the more the difference grows between the net outcome and the addition of the second option.
In sports in which there is no draw at all, there is no double chance. These types include tennis, table tennis, volleyball, badminton - there is always a match to win.
Using the double odds market in betting
Basically, double chance is used to hedge bets. If there is no firm confidence in the victory of the team or the tournament layouts hint at the possibility of drawing a draw, a double chance will come to the rescue. Yes, the odds are greatly reduced, especially if it's football, but two of the three possible outcomes of a match are reliably covered.
In basketball, bets “with X” are also very appropriate, especially when playing in quarters of a match. The final draw in the match is not so common, but quarters with an equal score end regularly. It is very disappointing to lose the bet due to the fact that you did not insure your team's victory in the quarter with a double outcome.
By the way, there is another intermediate outcome between a clear victory and a double chance for the chosen team - a zero handicap. Bookmakers designate it as F (0). The difference between this outcome and a double chance is that here, in case of a draw, the bettor will receive a return.
For example, consider the match of the English Championship “Blackburn Rovers” - “Luton Town”. Let's say the bettor is inclined to win for the hosts, but is not very confident in it. And the coefficient 2.21, for all its attractiveness, is somewhat frightening, because this probability is below 50%. In this case, a double chance of 1X could have come to his aid, that is, overlap and the victory of “Blackburn”, and a possible draw.
But the odds for this outcome are already very low - only 1.34. And here the zero handicap on “Blackburn” for 1.61 is just very appropriate. This is already quite a playable coefficient. If the home team wins, the bettor will receive a payout at the odds of 1.61. If the teams play a draw, the bettor will receive a refund of his bet.
Another option for using double selections is to add them to the express bet. If the odds for a double outcome in favor of the favorite are already very small, but the probability of passing is high, you can combine two such outcomes into an express double with good chances of success. Playing a single with odds of 1.40 is not the best solution, and two such odds in a double will give an odds of about two, and the chances of passing the bet will remain significant - from 50% and even higher.
Another important nuance of betting on a double outcome
Some unscrupulous bookmakers can cheat and pledge additional margins in these markets. At its core, a 1X double chance is a combination of the outcomes on W1 and X. If you do some manipulations with the Dutching calculator and bring them to a single profit, you can get a fair 1X odds.
A fair odds of 1X in this case would be 1.23. Previously, it was possible to see a stable figure in the area of 1.20 and even lower in such cases. Even now, at least one point is often removed from such a coefficient.
In the markets of combined outcomes (which many also call a double chance), this phenomenon generally flourishes. For example, let's take the combined outcome “Match Result + Total”.
The outcome “Birmingham City win + total over 2.5 goals”, in theory, should be evaluated by a coefficient reflecting the product of the quote by W1 and TB (2.5). On P1 they give 1.97 goals, on TB (2.5) goals - 2.42. Accordingly, the fair coefficient of this combo bet is 1.97 x 2.42 = 4.77. In fact, we see only 3.60 - an additional margin of about 21%! That is why we do not recommend getting involved with combined outcomes - a huge commission thrives on them.
But there are also opposite situations - when the coefficient for a double chance is even more profitable than putting down the two outcomes that make it up. In our first example, the fair odds on 1X were 1.23, but in reality they give 1.28.
This is an example of the work of an adequate, conscientious bookmaker who does not seek to cash in on his clients at every step. In general, when betting on double odds, you should always calculate the fair odds on the outcome using the Dutching calculator and bet as it is more profitable.
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It just seems like the 0.01 difference is nonsense. At a distance, these little things are collected in tens and hundreds of thousands of rubles. And a bettor who knows how to optimize his betting activity will have an advantage over those who don't even think about it.
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How to best use double chance betting?
In addition to all the options we have described above, the best double-chance betting strategy is an “X” bet on the underdog of the match. The odds, as a rule, are quite tasty there - above two, sometimes even three plus. In this case, two out of three possible outcomes overlap, which significantly increases the chances of passing.
Of course, you should not bet on such matches on everything. The selection criteria are as follows:
- We filter out matches of very big favorites (1.50 to win or less);
- We eliminate favorites with an impressive winning streak;
- We select “combat” underdogs who are not afraid to impose a fight even on the grandees;
- We select matches of outsiders against teams playing on several fronts (championship, European cups, national cup).
- Rotation of the main players is possible there, plus, there are factors of fatigue and loss of motivation for the favorite;
- Ideally, if the favorite is properly loaded, this will increase the value on the outsider's shoulder.
Using this simple selection, you can get excellent rates of passability of bets by strategy - 45% and even higher. Considering the high ratios, this percentage is more than enough to make a good profit and have an excellent ROI (Yield).