How to find value bets
There are plenty of ways to find value - every bettor with experience finds his own methods of revealing value. We remind you that only value-betting (and also surebets) is based on a positive mathematical expectation and is able to bring profit at a distance. How to find values? Let's figure it out today.
Where do the Values come from?
A bookmaker's line is not a static thing, especially in the modern world. Even 50 years ago, when the lines were printed in newspapers, they were updated several times a day. Now bookmakers change lines literally every minute, and in popular markets they can change by several points within a couple of seconds.
Often, there are much larger changes in the lines - by 10, 50, 100 , 200 or even more points. It is these jumps that bettors need to use to find a remotely profitable bet.
There are three common opinions about value betting that their adherents constantly argue about:
- Some are sure that only in the opening lines offered by bookmakers, you can find value. And even then, they are eaten by large players in the first hour after the opening, and there is nothing more to catch in the match.
- The latter, on the contrary, believe that the closing line is the most accurate, because it is corrected not only by bookmakers, but also by players. If you hit her, then you have a real advantage over the line.
- We are of the third opinion and believe that value can be found in lines at any given time. It is these constant swings and moving quotes that give players such an opportunity.
In low-margin large markets, even a couple of pips change can create some margin on one of the outcomes, not to mention larger swings. Let's count:
- Bookmakers offer tennis odds 1.99, probability 50%, bet is not profitable (1.99 х 50% = 0,995);
- The odds change to 2.04 with the same probability, the bet becomes profitable (2.04 х 50% = 1.02).
Yes, there is not a lot of value, only 0.02, which gives ROI + 2%. But for large markets, where you can bet tens of thousands of dollars on the outcome, this is a huge advantage and huge profits. Betters of medium and even high level are ready to kill for a stable ROI of + 2% in large markets. Which is not surprising - even with a "modest" bet of $ 1,000 for a large player, ROI + 2% brings profit + $ 6,000 per month, with ten options per day.
And such fluctuations occur constantly and most often they are caused by banal loads and leveling of the stream of rates, and not by some critical news on an event that changes all the layouts and probabilities in the match. These are the moments that every bettor who wants to play correctly should identify. And be sure to use it to get or increase your profits at a distance.
Search for Valuable Outcomes
Oddly enough, the most reliable and easiest way to find value is to do nothing on purpose. You just have to be in the subject of a championship, league or sport. Then you will see at a glance the lines offered by the bookmakers.
But you need to be very deep in the topic - to understand the chosen sport, watch the games, know all the tournament layouts, be aware of injuries, disqualifications and transitions, follow the social networks of players and league insiders, read forecasts and the press. And, of course, to place bets, spending dozens of hours behind the numbers and lines set by the bookmaker.
All this is very difficult, takes a lot of effort and time, but it's worth it. Valui, at least in terms of the outcomes of events, will literally be conspicuous. There are other methods for identifying value, consider them.
Method №1: statistical
The strategy is to match the averages to the bookmaker's line. Its main advantage is that it works with numbers - specific values. In case of revealing a serious discrepancy, one can confidently talk about the presence of value. What discrepancy is considered serious? Even the difference of 4-5% with what the bookmakers offer is already very decent. If it is more, then you shouldn't even think.
For example, a basketball team is gaining an average of 100.5 points per game per season. And the bookmaker offers bets on their matches “individual total over 100.5 points” for 2.30. In this situation, this is a clear signal that there may be value in a TB bet.
But you need to check everything carefully. Perhaps the team's main players were injured. Or they play away games, where they regularly lose in performance. Maybe today they have a grassroots defensive opponent, with whom they consistently gain less. Or the team has a difficult calendar, and they are already playing the third match in three days. Bookmakers must have taken into account all these factors.
It is necessary to check all the matches of the team in similar conditions (without a leader, away, against this opponent and others like him, in a difficult calendar) and then make a decision. If the current conditions do not greatly affect the team's scoring, and they still gain about a hundred (plus or minus a couple of points) in such matches, this is a serious reason to bet. The odds of 50% for 2.30 is a very decent advantage (2.30 x 50% = 1.15).
Another example. The same team, but on an equal line, the bookmaker offers their total (95.5) points for 1.95.In this situation, it makes sense to check how often the team breaks 96 points, including in similar conditions. If this happens more often than 52% of the time, then we can talk about the presence of value (1.95 x 52% = 1.01). The more often this happens, the more profitable such a bet will be remotely.
Thus, you can work with absolutely any numbers - points, goals, pucks, games, statistics. We identify the average value and consider the presence of value according to the formula "odds x probability (%)". If the result is more than one - there is value, we are happy to make such a bet.
Method №2: comparison of quotes offered by bookmakers
The essence of the strategy is to compare the quotes offered by different bookmakers for the same outcome. If you find a large discrepancy somewhere, then there is a very high probability that the largest odds contain an advantage.
Again, what discrepancy could be considered serious? It depends on the range of coefficients - on small quotes and 10 points this is a lot, but on high odds a much larger difference in numbers is needed. Oddsportal has an “Average” indicator for each outcome, that is, the average odds offered by the bookmaker. The office with the highest odds is also highlighted.
For comparison, it is best to convert odds to percentage probability using the simple formula "100 / kf". If the discrepancy is higher than 4-5%, then you can consider this as a signal.
For example, on P1 from the screen, the average odds of the office are 3.91, and the highest office gives - 4.33. We translate into probabilities: 100 / 3.91 = 25.58%, 100 / 4.33 = 23.1%. Not such an impressive difference, you can ignore. Now the same for P2: 100 / 1.27 = 78.74%, 100 / 1.3 = 76.92% - also not an outstanding difference.
But sometimes there are much more differences, there are even 10% or more. Again, these signals should not be taken as a guide to an immediate bet. You need to check everything, deduce your probabilities and calculate the presence of value in the outcome.
Method №3: scanners value bets
There are special services - value rate scanners. They automatically calculate the probabilities, compare the results with the bookmaker's lines, and give out profitable bets. Some of them are paid, some are partially paid, some are free. Of the latter, oddsportal scanner can be distinguished, in which all information is free and in addition to value bets, there are many additional functions that are most useful for bettors: monitoring of odds, movement of lines, search in the archive and much more.
The "Value Bets" tab can be found in the "Betting Tools" section of the main page. In particular, in the picture you can find the match of the best baseball league in the world MLB, “Chicago” against “Minnesota”. The service estimated the probability of TB (8.5) runs at 38.76% with a coefficient of 8.25 in the Bwin bookmaker. This gives an off-scale value: 8.25 x 38.76% = 3.2.
This is a lot and, even if the service is wrong by 15-20 percent, the value remains decent and the bet will be very valuable. But still, such signals should also be taken not as a guide to action, but as an excuse to carefully check everything. If the probability you deduced is about the same (and there is a huge margin), then you should definitely put this option.
Other services looking for value, but paid:
- Bet Catcher.
Method №4: arbs scanner
Arb scanners search for arbitrage situations between offices - situations in which you can stay in the black, blocking all possible outcomes. And the essence of the strategy is that if two books forks with each other, this is a guarantee of value. If an arbitrage situation has formed, then 100% of one of the leverage (and maybe more than one) has an advantage.
And since there is value a priori, the only task is to figure out which leverage to bet on. To do this, you need to independently calculate the probabilities of outcomes and compare with what the bookmaker offers, according to the standard formula. Line monitoring like oddsportal, as well as the BetMAX browser extension, which searches for the best odds for dozens of bookmakers, can also help in finding profitable leverage.
Popular surebet scanners:
Method №5: scanners dropping odds
Dropping odds are falling odds. If any firm has sharply dropped the odds on the outcome, the opposite shoulder in most cases will have a value, and this can also be used to identify a value bet.
This functionality is also contained in oddsportal and other services. In the picture, we see huge drops in the coefficients - by 50% or more. Such things do not happen by chance - this is either a serious change in the alignment of forces in the match, or the beeches received signals about the contractual nature of the game. In such situations, there are two ways to proceed:
- Strategy №1: find bookmakers whose odds have not yet fallen and set the falling odds at the same value 50% higher, which in any case is worth it. This is a guaranteed way, but it is far from always possible to find the same coefficient.
- Strategy №2: visit those bookmakers whose odds have failed as much as possible and set the opposite leverage. In most cases, such a bet will contain the same value and the same odds.
The problem is that you need to bet here quickly and it is not always possible to adequately assess the probabilities and the presence of value on one of the shoulders. This will help a lot what we talked about at the beginning - a deep immersion in the topic.
In particular, in the NBA match "Chicago" - "Toronto" such a sharp drop is due to the fact that all Major Raptors players will be resting in the upcoming game. If you understand this, and still estimate the success of the Toronto reserve at least 25%, then you can find that new quotes on them are value.
Other services that scan falling quotes:
Method №6: coefficient boosters
Some bookmakers offer higher odds on certain outcomes and even entire leagues. Since in the formula for identifying value, there is not only probability, but also the coefficient on the outcome. Players can enter from this side as well, increasing the coefficient itself.