Dropping odds in sports betting

03.09.2021

Falling odds strategy - myth or reality? Where to look for falling coefficients, what they mean, and how to use them wisely. Let's figure it out today.

What are falling odds?

These are the bookmaker's quotes for a certain outcome, which fell sharply in a short period of time. Sharp - it is at least 20-30 points for the average odds (for example, from 1.90 to 1.65). For a short period of time - within an hour or two. These are not strict criteria, but usually lie within these limits.

Where do these coefficients come from?

To understand the mechanics of the odds movement, read our material on downloads. It explains in detail why and in what cases bookmakers change odds.

Most often, there are two main reasons:

Exodus money losses. It can be one big bet from a confirmed professional, or it can be many small bets from the public on the same leverage of the event. The latter sometimes occurs after the release of a popular capper's forecast, but it also happens as a collective unconscious decision of the public. It can also be abnormally high for a particular match and market.

A sharp change in the balance of power in the match. For example, the team leader was injured, the leading players of the club received rest, the goalkeeper was disqualified. Perhaps, in a side-by-side match, the competitors won, and the team lost the chances of reaching the next stage.

These are fundamentally different reasons for the drop in coefficients and they require an opposite approach. We will talk about approaches at the very end of the material, so read on to the end.

Where to find falling odds?

The easiest and most suitable way for beginners is the “Dropping odds” service on Oddsportal. It is free, but it works quite fast. The resource quickly shows which quotes have collapsed recently, and how much they have already fallen.

There are other similar services. Examples are the free resource Arbworld, which provides rather poor functionality with a clumsy translation into Russian. Or Oddscorp – the world's fastest bookmaker line parser, which will find not only falling odds, but also value bets, arbs and much more at a reasonable price.

Should you bet on these odds?

First of all, you need to understand why the ratio is falling. If this is caused by a money load, then often the outcome is already unvaluable, that is, it has no value. For example, a group of pros determined that there is value in a bet on H1 (-4.5) in a basketball match. They placed bets and the odds began to plummet. And now for the same coefficient they give a head start (-6.5) points.

Such a drop in the coefficient in this situation is a good signal. But there is no value in the market anymore. What should a bettor do in such a situation? Bet on the lost odds of the previous handicap (-4.5)? Risk for the previous odds on the line by (-6.5)? Or refrain from betting altogether?

The correct strategy here would be:

Check if there are any previous quotes on the line of other offices. This can be done using the BetMAX browser extension.
Wait to see if the market will return to its previous values, or at least close to them.
If these actions did not help, skip the bet.

If the chosen outcome is a public bet, for example, the victory of a popular team, then you should look for value on the opposite shoulder. After all, it is very likely that the outcome was not uploaded by professional bettors, but by the public.

When a drop in the coefficient occurs due to a radical change in the alignment of forces in a match, then again, using the BetMAX extension, you can check other offices for the presence of previous quotes. If they are not already there, then you need to recalculate the probabilities and compare them with the new odds in the bookmaker. Often, after sharp drops, you can find valuable options for betting on a match.

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