Bets on points in each quarter and half of basketball games
Today we are talking about the nuances of betting on total points by segments in basketball. What does a basketball match look like, what is the average performance of teams in halves and quarters in different leagues. Let's discuss the general strategy of betting on total in basketball, as well as a number of specific tactical techniques. Interesting? Then read to the end.
Basketball match structure
In football, the match is divided into two halves, in hockey - into three periods. In basketball, the game is divided into four quarters. Between the first and second quarters, as well as between the third and fourth, the break is purely symbolic, two minutes. But between the second and third quarters of the match there is a long break (15-20 minutes), dividing the game into halves.
In each of these segments, the teams score points. Basketball is a highly productive sport, it does not happen here that a quarter or a half ends 0: 0, although there are abnormally dry segments of matches. At the same time, points are almost never scored evenly across all segments. In basketball, it is common for you to score 20 points in one quarter and two or even three times more in the next.
How many points do teams score in a quarter in basketball?
This figure is very different depending on the league and the match. Firstly, the rules of the game are different in different leagues. Most countries have adopted the 10-minute quarter and 40-minute match formats, but there are exceptions:
- NBA - Major North American Basketball League;
- Philippines Championship;
- China Championship;
- Several other Asian countries.
In these competitions, the basketball quarter is 12 minutes long and the entire match (excluding overtime) is 48 minutes. It is clear that in 12 minutes you can score more points than in 10, and in 48 - more than 40.
The second factor is the average level of performers in the league. The best basketball players in the world are universally recognized in the NBA. The higher the average level, the better the efficiency of the game and shots, the higher the performance of matches on average.
In addition, the NBA is a sport with elements of show, therefore in this league there is very fast, spectacular basketball - many three-pointers, fast detachments and much less defensive action. Therefore, the NBA is deservedly ahead of the whole planet in terms of performance.
The average performance in the best league in the world has been steadily increasing every season, and has grown by almost 16 points over the past 10 years. Now the team's average total in the match is 112.1 points, respectively, the average total of the match is 224.2 points, and the quarters are about 56 points.
But even in the NBA, the team is not the team. Some teams are overcrowded with high-quality snipers from beyond the arc, some gravitate more towards a viscous defensive style of play, and some simply play worse. The average performance of a match between two teams of the first type will be much higher than a meeting of two defensive teams or teams from the basement of the standings.
Last season, the most productive team per game were the champions, “Milwaukee” - 120.1 points per game on average. The worst were the Cleveland Cavaliers and their indicator was 16.3 points lower on average per game - only 103.8.
Nevertheless, even the figure of “Cleveland” more than exceeds the average performance of matches in other countries. So, in Australia, the team's average performance over the past season was 89.8 points (which coincides with the average performance for half the match), the best team averaged 89.8 points on average. The performance of the average match is 179.6 points, and the quarters - 44.9.
Data for the last season for several more leagues:
|Лига||Средняя результативность команд||Результативность лучшей команды||Средняя результативность матча||Средняя результативность четверти|
Thus, the average performance across the eight European leagues is only 40.3 points per quarter, which is 28% lower than in the NBA. Despite the fact that the time of a quarter has been reduced by only 17%. The rest is the difference in the class and skills of the players. In China and the Philippines, where the quarter lasts 12 minutes, the average performance is also lower than in the NBA - 46 and 52 points, respectively.
Betting on half and quarter totals in bookmakers
Today, almost all bookmakers offer detailed lists of basketball totals for half and quarter matches. The margin is higher there than on the total total of the match, and the limits are lower. But still, in normal bookmakers, you can bet on big tournaments with good sums with a sane commission.
What markets can be found in terms of total match segments:
- Total points in the first or second half (including Asian);
- Points in each quarter (including Asian);
- Even-odd points in half or quarter;
- IT points of each team in half (including Asian);
- IT points of each team in quarters (including Asian)
- Points in the first half and second half ( over-under-equal);
- Highest scoring and unsuccessful quarter (4 options each);
- Most scoring and unsuccessful quarter (over-under);
- Exact total range in half or quarters (for example, 50-55);
- Statistical totals.
Preference should be given to large bookmakers, they are better off both with limits and with margins. From Russian legal offices, Marathonbet and Pari Match have good offers, they give about 200-250 dollars to bet on the total quarters in the championships of Spain and Italy with a margin of about 5.8%. It's still better in the NBA.
1X Bet, Melbet, Zenitbet, Betcity has a good line for basketball totals. Offshore bookmaker is out of competition with Pinnacle. Their limits are about the same (the NBA is higher), but the margin is about 1-2% lower.
Strategies for betting on totals by segments in basketball
As we have already found out, the performance of quarters and halves is strong varies by league and team. Accordingly, first of all, in order to make predictions, you need to take into account this very factor - the average totals of the team and the league as a whole.
General recommendations for strategy
At the distance of the whole season, the average performance is a very indicative parameter. Especially in halves and quarters. In the same NBA, each team plays 82 matches per season. And this is 164 halves and 328 quarters - a completely representative sample. But at the beginning of the season it is difficult to estimate the average figures for the first 5-7 matches. It means it is better to wait with such bets for about a quarter or even a third of the season, and make predictions when the general picture is clear.
Basketball is a very contact and traumatic sport. In high-density leagues, each team regularly has at least 1-2 players in the infirmary, and often more, up to half of the entire application.
This factor needs to be monitored very closely, because the players have different usefulness, different skills in terms of shooting and scoring. If the main scorer of a team is eliminated with an injury or 2-3 good snipers are missing the match, it is highly likely to negatively affect the total.
Another factor that reduces the potential performance of the team and the match is player fatigue. If a team plays the third match in three days, and even all in different cities, this is a serious application for a decrease in the total. If a team rested for two or three days at home, and the last match was also played at home, this is an application for an increase in the total of the team, the match and its segments in particular.
You should not expect high performance from fundamental confrontations and playoff matches. There the game slows down, defensive actions are activated. Effectiveness gives way to efficiency and result achievement. Also, not the best conditions for high performance - the beginning and end of the season. In the first case, the teams have not yet played and played out, and in the second, there is often a loss of motivation, rotation of the main players.
Mathematical method for determining performance
Accordingly, we take the team's average performance for the season as a basis, and then impose on it the related factors described above. Each factor is a plus or minus to the expected number of a team.
When assessing the average performance of teams, it is very useful to clarify the results of matches in similar conditions. For example: at home, after a good rest, against a similar opponent, against TOP teams (or, conversely, teams not from the playoff zone), without a certain player who will not play today, and so on.
Ideally, recalculate performance per 100 possessions, taking into account the current opponent, and do the same for the opposing team. After all the calculations, we will get the most accurate figure from which we can postpone the lineout, how much plus or minus the teams will score in a match. We compare this corridor with the bookmaker's offer and, in case of discrepancy, make a bet.
Trend method for determining the effectiveness of teams
A good addition to the mathematical strategy would be to compare the current trends of the teams. This method comes from America and is not very popular with us yet. Its essence is that there are resources that consider how often teams break through the bookmaker's total under certain conditions. One of these services is teamrankings.com.
Here we see a picture of the last season of the NBA, Indiana became the top team, they broke the total in 63% of their matches with an average deviation from the bookmaker's figure of +5 points.
Similarly, you can see this figure for any team. And also run through filters - games at home, against TOP teams, against the opposite conference, with good rest, no rest at all, underdog, favorite, after a win or loss, in the playoffs or regular season, and so on.
Trend the method can hardly be considered an independent tool for determining probabilities, but in conjunction with a mathematical one, it works excellently. If everything converges both in mathematics and in trends, then this is a very good signal for betting on TB or TM.
Specific strategies for betting on half and quarter totals
Now let's move on to the specific actions that need to be performed in order to profitably bet on the totals of segments in basketball. We will offer two effective strategies, and you yourself choose which one you like best. You can use both at once or modify them to your taste.
Deviation from average in live
This is a great betting system for any sport, but it probably works best in basketball. The point is to compare the total values during the game with the pre-match layouts. You can focus on the bookmaker's quotes in the prematch, but it is even more effective to form your own idea of the match and its numbers before the game.
If during the long break you see that the match has deviated greatly from the expected performance, then it's time to make value bets ... What is considered a strong deviation? 5-10% in such markets is more than enough.
- You expected the average total in the match at the level of 220 points, but in the first half the teams scored only 80. During the break, the average total is already 180 points along an equal line. In such a situation, you need to take the current TB in the hope that in the second half the teams will get the missing percentage of hits and speed up much more than in the first. There is even some probability that they will get close to the total of 220, and maybe even surpass it. But on TB (180) the probability is about 60% +.
- The team was given 100 points in the IT prematch, but they scored 40 points already in the first quarter. Now in live they give 130 points on an equal line. It's time to bet on their ITM. Another option is to take their “individual total less” in each of the subsequent quarters. It is doubtful that they will be able to break their total more than once, and most likely, the bettor will remain in the black, winning two out of three bets.
The same applies to any market in basketball and any sport. The underdog is in the top ten? We take the victory of the former favorite. Did the underperforming teams score three goals in the first half? We take TM for the second half. The favorite with a prematch handicap of -3.5 can't score by the 60th minute and zeroes in the match? We are happy to take the current handicap -1 or just a victory. And so on.
With such a strong deviation as in the examples above, it makes sense to even risk higher odds. That is, in the first case, we take TB about 200 for the coefficient 3+, and in the second - ITM 120 or 115 for the coefficients 3-4. But in practice, you can rarely catch this, usually deviations lie within the same 10%, which we have already mentioned.
Also, in this strategy, you need to take into account the team's play style. For one team, 40 points per quarter is the norm and they do it every couple of matches. And the other team, practicing defensive, slow basketball, succeeds 40 points a couple of times during the entire season. In general, understanding and knowledge of the chosen league will be a great help in playing this strategy.
Of course, this will not always work. But as practice shows, the probability of passage in such situations is higher than 60%, which is more than enough for remote earnings on them with equal coefficients.
Catch up with total by quarters
Basketball quarters are one of the few areas of betting in which progressive strategies (such as catch-up) are conventionally appropriate. In particular, it is quite a rare occurrence when all quarters of a match go to the same value relative to the total - all for more or all for less. Either everything is odd, or everything is odd.
Actually, these are equally probable markets, so it is easy to calculate that the probability of all four quarters passing to the same outcome is slightly more than 6% (50% x50% x50% x50% = 6.25%). On this you can build your tactics.
- First quarter, take TB (50.5) for 1.95 for 1050 rubles, loss;
- Second quarter, take TB (48.5) for 1.95 for 2150 rubles, lose;
- Third quarter, take TB (48.5) for 1.95 for 4400 rubles, a win.
If the third bet was lost, about 9000 rubles would have to be bet on the fourth. But it cost, in total, we are in positive territory by about 1000 rubles, that is, by the amount of the initial bet.
Most often this scheme will be closed already at the first or second stage, sometimes you will have to get nervous up to the fourth. Similarly, you can play TM, as well as even or odd, but there are higher margins and lower limits. You can play this way and the handicap is in favor of the favorite or the underdog, it doesn't matter. Any equally likely outcome will do.
An important nuance - we do not recommend continuing the catch-up at the next match. Sometimes you will find yourself in such anomalous games in which all quarters are on TM. This will happen on average one time out of sixteen at a distance, but in practice it may not come across for months. In this case, it is better to forget about the lost money and start a new chain on the next game. Otherwise, there is a high risk of losing your entire bankroll.
It is unlikely that this model will be suitable as the main and only strategy of the game, but as an additional one - quite. If you do not use it very often, then abnormal games will be a huge rarity, coming across once every few months. And in other periods, it will be possible to consistently stamp at face value from each match.