Small Odds Betting & Favorite Betting Strategy

Today we will deal with small odds once and for all. Is it worth betting on them at all, and how to do it, if you really want to. Along the way, we will discuss general strategies for betting on favorites, which make up the lion's share of all bets on low odds.

What ratios can be considered small?

Low odds are anything below 1.50. Well, with a bit of a stretch, it may be below 1.40. If there is already a very good option for a match for 1.40-1.45, you should not unconditionally dismiss it. Still, it is better to try to minimize such bets in your betting menu, and take only those that are above 1.50, and ideally above 1.65.

Most beginners and recreational players (who, as you know, are in the red at a distance ) are very fond of small quotes. They are ready to bet on the favorites up to the odds of 1.01, citing the fact that "such bets will certainly pass", "the bet on this match is iron, concrete, granite." In fact, this is not at all the case, and the notebook favorites lose regularly.

It's far to go - let's take these matches in the Champions League - the most popular tournament among bettors. Great Madrid “Real” lost to a modest newcomer “Sheriff” at home! The odds for the victory of the Moldovans reached 35.00, and the victory of the “creamy” was estimated not higher than 1.14.

“Inter” could not score against “Shakhtar”, “Brugge” beat Leipzig away at 7.00, “Borussia” won the minimum at “Sporting”, having buried all the negative handicaps on them, “Milan” in the end gave the match. Anyway, only two favorites won confidently in eight matches - “Ajax” and “Liverpool”. And this is not some abnormal day, it happens regularly! Football, tennis, basketball, hockey - everything is about the same.

Why you shouldn't bet on small odds?

The bet on low odds has a lot of disadvantages, which we will now analyze in more detail. If there are several advantages, they will be discussed below.

1) High risks. Just imagine how a player feels who has bet a large sum on a Real Madrid match at odds of 1.11. In any case, you will have to bet a large amount in order to earn at least something from this event. You won't bet a thousand rubles to get a hundred square meters from the office, will you? At the same time, there is always a risk of losing, as the Madrid team showed us once again.

2) Disproportionate returns. At 1.15 odds, you risk a thousand dollars to win 15 dollars on top. Obviously, this is not the best use for free funds. If you don’t think so, you need to do something with the worldview.

3) Psychological aspect. Defeats at low odds are very hard to bear mentally. When betting on odds of 3+, there is no particular faith in the passage, except perhaps hope. By betting on the outcome with kf 1.15, the player is sure that everything will be fine, and he will make + 15% to the amount of the bet with a guarantee lightly. But sometimes everything goes wrong and the bettor loses a large sum. This triggers the mechanism of an urgent desire to recoup urgently, which leads to very disastrous consequences.

4) Bug fixes. Even if the player does not go into wild tilt, and is able to control himself, he has a long job of winning back the loss. When betting on odds around 1.20, you need five wins in a row to break through. With odds of 1.10 - 10 wins in a row. This is not easy to achieve, and this is only cost recovery.

5) A series of failures. But several such defeats in a row can happen, this also cannot be ruled out. Spoiler alert: with regular play, this will inevitably happen at a distance.Such a black bar can drive even the most mentally strong person into a psychological pit.

6) Mathematical factor. Low odds bets are often favorites. Bookmakers work in such a way as to make quotes for favorites mathematically unprofitable as much as possible. The favorite is almost always loaded, the maximum margin is laid on their victories and handicaps, it is almost impossible to find value there. Systematic bets on such markets and matches can quickly drain any bankroll.

7) Trimming payments. At low quotes, every hundredth part greatly reduces the payout percentage. If we again remember about today's “Real”, its victory was quoted in the range from 1.09 to 1.14. It would seem trifles, but the payment in the first case is reduced by more than 35%, that is, immediately by a third. The best odds on the outcome will not always be in the office available to you, and you will constantly reduce your potential profit by 10, 20, 30 or more percent.

8) Estimation of probabilities. At low quotes, the probability also fluctuates very much. The difference in estimated probability between the odds of 1.15 and 1.20 is approximately 3.6%. Are you capable of evaluating probability so finely that you have value in most of your picks for matches? If not, then a minus in the distance is guaranteed to you.

These are eight reasons why you shouldn't mess with small match odds. Are there any positive aspects?

Pros of betting on low odds

There are, of course, pluses, like any phenomenon. First of all, you will win more often at small odds, this is a fact. Your bets' pass rate will skyrocket to 75% with average quotes around 1.30, meaning you will win about three out of four bets. But even such permeability will not give you a good plus in money, and if you drop it by only 5-10%, you will get a huge minus.

When playing at low odds, there is always something to bet on. Such quotes are available in all sports, in all markets, including live. It doesn't matter what you bet on - a football match, a game or a tennis set, a hockey match. By and large, you may not even understand sports very deeply, basic knowledge will be enough to distinguish a highly probable option from a dangerous one. This is another plus.

In live at low odds, you can play very quickly, significantly increasing the turnover of your bets and the possible profit. Provided that your strategies are still profitable. Otherwise, playing like this, you will only increase your own loss, and you will very quickly come to drain all the funds you have prepared.

***

This is where the pros (and even then, with a stretch) end. Obviously, the disadvantages are seriously outweighed, and you should refrain from betting on small odds.

***

General strategy for betting on a favorite

Betting on the winning of the favorites of the matches is one of the main types of bets for small odds. And they should be avoided as well. The main problem with them is unprofitable coefficients. The public loves to bet on the favorites (and also on the total more), and the bookmakers are well aware of this. Therefore, they often artificially underestimate the coefficient on the victory of the favorite of the match, and then it is further reduced under the influence of the public load.

***

In general, a life hack for any match: in order to bet on a favorite, you need to find good reasons for this. Outsider odds in most cases contain value, especially if it is a match against super popular teams. But the vast majority of players follow the opposite strategy. Therefore, 95% + bettors are in the red at a distance, and bookmakers are in a stable plus.

***

This applies to any sport - football, basketball, hockey, tennis - there is no difference. We recommend choosing the side of the favorite only if the pre-match analysis does not portend any problems at all:

1. The favorite plays the match at home;
2. All players are healthy, no disqualifications;
3. The opponent is quite comfortable;
4. The favorite is in good shape;
5. There is motivation, a victory is needed;
6. There was enough rest from the last game;
7. The favorite has excellent game statistics;
8. The favorite regularly breaks the handicaps and individual totals, which are set by the bookmaker;
9. There is peace, calmness and good mood in the team.

If everything directly speaks in favor of the favorite, then you can consider a bet on him. Otherwise, it is better to proceed from the strategy of betting on the handicaps (and sometimes even winning) of the underdog.

And, again, you should not bet on the favorite if the odds on it are too low. 1.50-1.65 - ok, but more is better. 1.40-1.50 - you should think hard, take only if the probability and value are high. Below 1.40 is not considered at all. The eight reasons are detailed in the second section of this material.