Should you buy paid sports predictions?
The Internet nowadays is literally overflowing with offers for the sale of sports predictions. For every taste and wallet - expensive and cheap, wholesale and retail, for express trains and single bets, for a variety of sports, markets and game strategies. In general, there is definitely no shortage of them. The question is - is it worth buying? Let's try to figure it out today.
What are paid sports predictions?
Paid sports predictions are tips from a tipster (professional capper) on how to make a bet. In theory, this is intellectual work, and ideally, these tips should be profitable for the client at a distance. For which, in fact, the client pays the remuneration.
But in practice, everything is far from being so smooth and the sphere of paid forecasts is literally teeming with incompetent amateurs and outright scammers. The former are simply not able to bring remote profit, while the latter are initially set up to deceive the client.
Truly profitable cappers - only 5-10% of those who try to call themselves that. It is possible and even necessary to buy forecasts from them. In this article, we will explain how to identify them among thousands of invalid offers.
What an adequate offer to buy paid predictions should look like
The first, most important and obligatory condition is bet statistics verified by an independent resource. If she is not there (under any pretext), say goodbye right away.
Cuppers confirm their results on special verifiers - independent platforms that fix their every bet. Among such sites are bet-hub, blogabet prediction exchanges, as well as large betting resources like stavka.tv, vprognoze, legalbet, betting insider, and so on.
These statistics should be extensive (at least 1000 bets) and, of course, positive. Below we will talk about what Yield (percentage of profit from turnover) is considered good. But besides this, capper statistics should have several more important properties:
- All or a significant part of the profit must be achieved by bigmarkets (read about the difference in markets here), that is, by the main line of the top-ranked competitions. As a last resort - for the largest middle markets. Betting on outcomes like total offenses in water polo or strikeout handicaps in baseball are good for personal income, but not good for selling to customers.
- In addition, the statistics should not contain any frank game such as "agreements", bets on exact accounts, multiples of five outcomes with wild odds, no "dogons", "ladders", oversizing by 10%, 20%, 50% of the bank per bet. If you see something like this, close the page, this is almost a sure sign of scammers or amateurs. Optimally - a strict flat of 1-2% of the bank per single with a coefficient in the range of 1.65-3.00.
- Also, there should be no critical drawdowns. If the capper offers to bet 5% of the bank, but regularly receives downstrokes of 20-30 denominations, then this is unlikely to suit you. You can get into such a drawdown from the very beginning and lose your entire pot. It is optimal if the capper drawdowns in the entire history do not exceed 70% of the starting bank.
By the way, about drawdowns. Don't start buying paid predictions from the capper when it's on the rise. Likewise, you should not be afraid to enter the mailing list during a hard downturn. If the capper has good statistics (criteria above), then the best time to enter is a hard drawdown or a prolonged plateau.
An example of a high-quality mailing list with paid predictions
Here's a great example of what you need. There is an excellent distance (over 2300 bets), adequate sizing (average bet size 1.17%), excellent Yield + 6.4% achieved in large markets (and only in Pinnacle), maximum drawdown was only 52.4% and each of the last 7 months is closed plus.
At the same time, everything was verified on the largest Russian-language verifier bet-hub and, which is important, by the method of 100% verification, which practically excludes the possibility of fraud, painting and other distortions.
Using the figures presented, you can easily calculate your own potential profitability from cooperation with this capper. At a distance, you will receive + 6.4% from each capper bet, regardless of its outcome. With a bank of 100 thousand rubles, a rate of 2% on a bet and a turnover of 500 rates per month, this is approximately 64,000 of the average expected monthly profit. Similarly, you can calculate the potential profitability for any period at any size of the bank and the size of the bet.
The question of the price of paid sports predictions
Another important point - all the conditions of cooperation must be detailed and clearly spelled out by the tipster. You must understand what average figures to expect, how much and when to pay, what additional conditions are.
Only charlatans can guarantee specific profit figures for a certain period; for adequate specialists, conditions are based on Yield and monthly averages. Also, there should not be any promises of wild profits, such as doubling the bank every month (or even a day) - this is immediately banned.
And finally: the price of the mailing should correspond to the declared profitability and your capabilities. What does it mean? For example, a tipster demonstrates Yield + 10% at a distance, offers about 100 predictions per month at a price of 100 rubles apiece. Your bank is 10,000 rubles. Will it be beneficial for you?
- Даже если вы будете ставить по 5% от банка (что очень небезопасно!), то ваш оборот составит примерно 50000 рублей в месяц, а чистая прибыль (10%) – 5000 рублей. При этом вы должны заплатить капперу 10000 рублей (100х100) за прогнозы. Очевидно, что это невыгодно.
In general, professional tipsters rarely offer one-by-one predictions. They operate with such concepts as a monthly, semi-annual or seasonal subscription, less often they can give the opportunity to buy a subscription for two weeks. So, more often than not, individual proposals are another sign of charlatans.
We consider further, but your bank is already 100 thousand rubles, the other conditions are the same:
- At a rate of 5% from the bank, the turnover increased to 500 thousand per month, the expected profit is 50 thousand rubles. The capper needs to give 10 thousand rubles, in total, 40,000 rubles of net profit. This is a completely different matter.
- At the same time, if you are a conservative and want to reduce the risks to 2% for one bet, then your turnover will drop to 200,000 rubles, and the total profit - up to 20 thousand rubles. In this case, your net profit will be only 10 thousand rubles, that is, you will work with a capper on terms of approximately 50/50. This is acceptable, but much better deals can be found in terms of profit sharing.
High-quality sports forecasts in the Russian-speaking segment now cost about $ 80-150 per month.
This is approximately 7-10 thousand rubles, as in our examples. However, you can negotiate directly with the capper about any discounts or, say, a price reduction when buying forecasts in bulk - immediately for six months or a year in advance. You can find more profitable offers, newcomers often lower the price of their services and sell high-quality mailings for $ 50-70 per month.
But even if we take the maximum - $ 150 / month at the current exchange rate of 74 rubles, this is about 11 thousand rubles. What bank do you need to have to break out in money with Yield + 5%, a turnover of 300 bets per month and a safe rate of 1% from the bank on a bet?
We take out the calculator again and count:
- Turnover 300% of the bank x 5% = 15% of the bank. 11,000 / 15% = 73,000 rubles. Accordingly, this is the minimum bank that will break even in this case with the most expensive subscription.
If we double the pot, the profit doubles. If we triple, it will triple, and so on:
- Bank 200,000 - turnover 600,000 - profit 5% - 30,000 rubles;
- Bank 300,000 - turnover 900,000 - profit 5% - 45,000 rubles;
- Bank 1 million - turnover 3 million - profit is the same 5% - 150,000 rubles per month.
That is, with an increase in the amount of the bank, the percentage that you receive from the total profit grows exponentially. If in the first case you give the capper 30%, then in the third - only about 7.5%. And you can also lower the subscription price, search for cheaper, buy in bulk or negotiate discounts, then it will be even more profitable. In general, this clearly makes sense, because the money will work and bring you profit almost on complete liability.
What else you need to know about paid sports predictions?
Finally, a couple more tips. The golden rule of investing is not to put all your eggs in one basket. This is true both in the sense that you cannot put all-in on one bet, and in the sense that you cannot trust all your capital to one strategy or one tipster.
Drawdowns in betting are common and an integral part of the process. Even with the super pro, they inevitably happen. Therefore, in order not to get nervous once again, it is better to pick up a whole pool of several smart cappers, then they will insure each other. The optimal number of investment objects is about ten, but you can start with a smaller number, say, 4-5 with further expansion.
Also, when choosing multiple Cuppers offering sports predictions, it is better to separate the sports they play. If everyone gives only football, then they will often overlap in matches, and it’s good if the opinion is the same. But in practice, this almost never happens.
Such a picture at a distance is a reality. Though very rare.
And as for the question, which Yield is considered good. Of course, the more the better. But a lot also depends on your capabilities. If you have a gorgeous bank of several million rubles, then even with + 1% Yield, you can earn solid money on the turnover. In general, any positive Yield on bigmarkets is very good. And if you see forecasts with a stable remote indicator above 5% - feel free to take, such offers are worth their weight in gold.
And last but not least. Sports betting is a highly profitable but high risk investment. Even if you adhere to all the recommendations from our article, there is no 100% guarantee that you will not lose your investment one day. But following our recommendations will significantly reduce your risks. Invest wisely!