Are there any win-win sports betting strategies?
First, let's define what is a win-win betting system? A system in which no bet loses or a system that does not lose at a distance? The first is a myth harmful to immature minds, the second is reality, but with a number of reservations, which we will discuss today.
Is it possible to place bets without losses at all?
The answer to this is unequivocal - no. No strategy, no analyst, no supercomputer can place bets without ever being wrong. Otherwise, bookmakers would simply not exist. The development of such a strategy is a myth, akin to the invention of a perpetual motion machine, which, too, has already been abandoned by the entire progressive scientific community.
Absolutely any outcome has a nonzero probability. Even a “both-to-score bet” in basketball won't work one day when given infinite reps. And the odds of the 1.01-1.05 level do not pass regularly, and in practice they are much more often than one out of 20-100 times.
The probabilities of outcomes are a rather vague and abstract concept. Nobody knows for sure - neither super bettors, nor leading bookmakers, with all their powers. But even if the likelihood of an outcome is very low, it can happen at any time. Therefore, only a person who sees the future can place bets accurately, but such people do not exist.
Those who try to impersonate a seer, in fact, almost always turn out to be scammers or just city madmen. And not a single person has yet officially confirmed his “gift”, although the corresponding awards - Randy and Houdini - have existed for more than a dozen years.
But what can I say, even real match-fixing does not always end the way the organizers agreed. In sports, there are too many human factors and various conditions that affect the final result. Therefore, even in such “obvious” cases, there is no guarantee, and the only way to never lose is not to bet at all.
Are there strategies that do not lose at a distance?
But this is a completely different matter. Such systems exist and, unlike the “visionaries”, very many bettors have been able to show impressive or simply positive results in terms of profit on solid time intervals. We have already analyzed these systems in detail in other materials, here we will recall the very essence.
- Value betting or playing at odds underestimated by the bookmaker. The basis of the basics in correct betting, based on the most accurate determination of probabilities. Bettors who can do it better than the bookmakers are guaranteed to be in the black over the course. To successfully implement a strategy, you need to be very well versed in sports, have reliable sources of information and understand the essence of betting in general.
- Arb bets or arbitrage bets. On paper, it is a win-win system of the game, but recently the opposition of bookmakers has made surebets much less profitable and safe. However, some of them still manage to withdraw good money from arbitration thanks to high-tech, fast live arb scanners.
- Bonus hunters, too, now no longer have such profits as at the dawn of the Internet, but still they are still trying to squeeze their piece of the pie from the bookmaker. Combined with surebets, bonus hunting still has a positive mathematical expectation and can generate some profit over the long run.
- Dogon and other progressive bankroll distribution systems, in theory, can also be win-win over the long run. But it will take a lot, a lot of luck. We also analyzed the nuances and pitfalls of such strategies in separate materials.
In general, all these strategies are win-win only conditionally. Value betting requires real skill, available only to a couple of percent of the world's bettors. For surebets and bonus hunting, you need a lot of knowledge of the intricacies of these professions, and for the successful use of progressions, luck and luck are vital. Without the above conditions, they will not work.
Therefore, if you are offered a 100% win-win strategy or guaranteed a working betting system that will certainly suit everyone and will work forever, these are 99.99% scammers. There are no such sports betting products and simply cannot exist.
Real betting is serious work, constant development, searching for new tools and improving skills. Without this, even with the most promising strategy, you can manage to go into a hard minus in terms of money.