Catch-up strategy in betting

Dogon is the most famous and popular progressive (from the word progression) financial system in sports betting. Today we will understand its nuances and varieties, and also answer the question - is it worth using it at all? And why. Go.

What is Dogon?

The classic dogon was invented back in the 18th century for playing at equal chances in casinos. Then the dogon was called the "Martingale system" and was simple and elementary. An example of calculating the catch-up of those times - we start with a bet of one unit on the color of the roulette, gradually increasing the amount of the bet twice with each loss. If you win, we return to the beginning of the cycle.

1. Step # 1: bet 1 $ on “red”, loss;
2. Step # 2: bet $ 2 on “red”, loss;
3. Step # 3: bet $ 4 on “red”, lose;
4. Step # 4: bet $ 8 on “red”, lose;
5. Step # 5: bet $ 16 on “red”, lose;
6. Step 6: bet $ 32 on “red”, win.

In total, we bet $ 63 in six steps and ended up with a profit equal to the starting bet - $ 1. We would have received the same profit if the bet was won on any of the steps. This is the whole principle of the classic catch-up - each subsequent bet beats off all previous losses and makes a profit in the amount of the initial bet.

Modern dogon

Over the years, this simple system has acquired many variations and additional calculations. Bettors still continue to try to improve it, adding new conditions - catching up with several betting chains, using an arithmetic progression (d'Alembert), using an alternative series of numbers (Fibonacci), raising the bet when winning, betting on the opposite outcome when failing, and many other tricks.

Strictly speaking, all this is no longer a classic catch-up, since these systems do not meet the main criterion of catch-up - getting an initial nominal profit for every win. The aforementioned systems are softer, but still extremely dangerous for the bettor's bankroll.

Also, for the game in bookmakers, where the winning odds are different, the following formula was invented to calculate the amount of the bet according to the catch-up strategy:

(X + Y) / (K – 1)

K is the odds for the next bet, X is the sum of all losses in the previous steps, and Y is the sum of the winnings in the system. That is, we add up the desired profit and the amount of losses, and then divide the result by a factor minus one. As a result, we get the exact amount of the bet that needs to be made.

For example, if we went through four steps and lost 8560 rubles already, our face value was 1000 rubles, and the selected coefficient for the next outcome is 2.40, then the amount of the next bet will be equal to:

1. (8560 + 1000) / (2,4 – 1) = 6828,57 rubles

This strategy can be used in any kind of sports - football, hockey, basketball, golf, table tennis, eSports matches. In any markets - outcomes, handicap, total, individual total, at any odds - at least 2.00, at least 5.00, at least 1.50. You can also “catch up” any event - a draw, victory or defeat of a team, “total more” for certain matches, “both will score” in a suitable league, or even just your own winnings, making bets literally at random.

You can use it, but is it necessary?

Why dogon is a bad idea?

Most importantly, because this strategy works only “on paper”. In real life, the player's bankroll is not infinite, and there is also such a thing as the limits of the maximum bets in bookmakers. Playing on the catch-up system, the player will inevitably one day come to a series of losses that will empty his entire bank, or exceed the allowed bet limits.

Secondly, catch-up is an extremely aggressive betting system. If you start with just 1% of your bankroll and play at odds in the region of two, then the pot will end at the seventh step. Rather, the bank is not even enough to make a full seventh bet.

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Don't believe that you can lose 6-7 equally likely bets in a row? This is not something elementary, but even inevitable. Go to Excel and enter the formula in the top cell: “= RANDBETWEEN (1; 2)”. Then, hook the cell in the lower right corner and drag it down 1000 lines. As a result, you will have a completely random distribution of the numbers 1 and 2 over a distance of 1000 repetitions.

Here you are, a series of seven twos is already in the second ten of the list.

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We assure you that already in the very first hundred lines you will find a couple of series of 6-7 repetitions of only ones or only twos. And if you look more closely, you will find 8, and 9, and 10, and sometimes more repetitions of the same number in a row. The experiment can be continued endlessly by pressing the "Refresh" button. You can just as well flip a coin 1000 times, marking the duration of the series of heads or tails only.

But back to our catch-up - the probability of bank drain at a solid distance is 100%, with this, we hope, it is understandable. The only question is when it will happen, and how much you will have time to earn in this simple way before the drain.

By the way, even if you start with a bet of only 0.2% of the pot, your bankroll will be enough for only 10 iterations (repetitions). And you, too, are guaranteed to catch such a series of pockets one day. At the same time, 0.2% of a bank of 40,000 rubles is only 80 rubles. This is the amount you will receive from each repetition of the scheme. Not very much, right? 40 thousand is already a good amount in order to play a conservative flat of 3-4 percent and get a good distance profit.

Let's figure it out further. Another big catch-up problem is the very rapid increase in the amount of the bet. When starting with 1%, at the fifth step, almost a third of the entire bank is involved, and at the sixth, two-thirds. Few people have the moral strength to continue to work clearly according to the strategy with such a burden of responsibility. And yes, all these huge amounts are used in order to get the same 1% profit.

You can, of course, play with increased odds. At the same time, the amount of subsequent rates will not grow so catastrophically. For example, with coefficients in the region of three and a nominal value of 1%, at the fifth step, only 5.75% will decrease in the bank and only 3.4% will need to be set in order to recoup all expenses. Total, less than 10%, nonsense. But you need to understand that such rates will come in much less often and reach 5-6-7 and further steps you will be almost every time. And at the tenth step, a huge amount of 80% of the bank will still come up, which will be the last.

Such systems are monstrously exhausting morally, they burn kilometers of nerves. Even if you are still in your twenties, and you do not have any problems with the central nervous system, you can rest assured that they will appear after regular catch-up. There is one more danger - some overly gamblers “accelerate” in such a way that after the bank is drained, credit money, stash money for buying a car, and sometimes mortgages for an apartment are used.

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Dogon and other progressions are invented by popans for popans. They are the ones who regularly reinvent this system. People want to believe in a miracle, in the existence of some kind of a win-win cycle, a universal model that will always allow them to bet and make a profit. But miracles do not happen, betting is a real world based on mathematics.

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Are there any advantages?

A conditional advantage of the catch-up can be considered the fact that in order to apply this strategy, you don't even need to understand sports, and bet at random. Although this is also quite controversial - making bets at random, you will not have a positive mathematical expectation, and the bookmaker's margin will inevitably eat up any of your bankroll over time.

strategies are completely lost. Play conservatively flat and make good profit over the long run.

The same goes for pot size. The very minimum that can be used with a nominal bet in the classic dogon is 1/63 of the pot (enough for 6 repetitions). It hardly makes sense to "earn" 100 rubles from one game session, probably the minimum bar here is 500 rubles, or better - 1000. So, you will need a bank of 31,500-63,000 rubles. Ideally, you should have a margin of 10 repetitions, and this is already more than half a million rubles at a nominal value of 500 rubles and more than a million at a nominal value of 1000 rubles. And what is the point, having such an impressive bank, to get involved with such risky schemes?

The only option when it makes sense to take risks with catch-up is a scanty bank. If you have only 10 thousand rubles available, you can try to overclock your bankroll using such schemes, keeping in mind that an adequate financial strategy will be used in the future. If you already have 100 thousand or a million - start right away with it.

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In general, our verdict is to stay away from catch-up and other progressions. Ultimately, they will inevitably lead to bank drain. In the best case scenario, you will have time to earn a certain number of denominations before that - maybe even several dozen. But in the end, the drain is inevitable. There are adequate static systems of bankroll distribution - flat varieties, Kelly criterion, Miller's principles. Only they are worthy of serious consideration in the correct betting.

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If you really want to try...

It is a pity that we did not manage to convince you, well, try it. We will even give you some tips to minimize your losses. As already mentioned, you need to use 1/63 of your bank as the minimum nominal rate. This is already too risky, but less - almost a guarantee of a drain on the first repetitions.

If you have very little money, try raising your average betting odds. It is not at all safer, but at least not so quickly inflates the size of subsequent steps.

Betting is best done in large bookmakers - bookmakers Marathonbet, Pari Match, Fonbet, Bet League etc. They have at least the best odds and decent betting limits, including live betting, and you won't hit the ceiling at the most inopportune moment. The best markets for catch-up betting are football matches and totals in them. They are easier to calculate and, again, there are the best limits, at least for TOP football. Many people like to make predictions for draws in football using this strategy.

Another good use of catch-up is basketball and quarter bets. It is quite rare in basketball that there are matches in which all quarters are played the same way - everything is on TB, everything is odd, or all with a handicap of the favorite. Alternatively, you can try to catch up with the same result in the quarters of the match.

Example: basketball, CSKA - Olympiacos match

1. First quarter: the favorite wins with a handicap of 1000 rubles for a coefficient of 1.95, a loss;
2. Second quarter: victory of the favorite with a handicap of 2053 rubles for 1.95, loss;
3. Third quarter: victory of the favorite with a handicap of 4214 rubles for 1.95, loss;
4. Fourth quarter: the favorite wins with a handicap of 8650 rubles for 1.95, the favorite wins, winning.

But still there is a nuance - if you were unlucky enough to get to an abnormal basketball game, in which all quarters were with the same outcome, spit on the money you lost and start the catch-up chain again. This will happen quite rarely and, perhaps, you are lucky enough to come out with a profit. A new match and the continuation of the catch-up on the same bet will most likely end with the drain of the entire pot.

In general, when playing the catch-up strategy, it is better to use live - everything happens much faster there and you can get your own profit particles more often. The best live-dog sports are the most dynamic - the same basketball, table tennis, volleyball, tennis.

And even better - use casino games with equal chances to catch up. After all, it was for them that it was invented. In the same roulette, there are clear probabilities of hitting numbers, in contrast to sports events. And also, the margin is lower there - on standard roulette it is only 2.7% (sector "zero"). And the limits in large offline casinos can be much higher than what bookmakers offer.

What else can you advise in one line:

1. Choose a specific catch-up model and do not deviate from it.
2. Carefully analyze each selected outcome for the real probability of its passing and the presence of value.
3. In a series of defeats, try not to lose your head, endure, discarding emotions as much as possible.

Many people recommend the dogon strategy as a source of entertainment, but there are not many moments of pleasure there. It's fun as long as everything flies in the first or third step, but the nervous tension that begins after the fourth step is difficult to call entertainment.

In conclusion, we are trying to convey for the last time that the main rule of using dogon - do not use it. The strategy is too risky, at least try to test it on a virtual account of some verifier before using it on a real bankroll. Most likely, after the first hundred bets, you will abandon this venture.