Express bets - how to calculate and place a correct bet?

All about express trains. What is it, how is it calculated, varieties of express bets. Why are express bets a favorite type of betting both among bettors and bookmakers. Who is this bet for? The mathematical justification of the disadvantage of such bets, the pros and cons, how you can use the express bets correctly. All this is in our today's material.

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Spoiler: The material is very detailed and voluminous. For those who are too lazy to read so many letters, they can go to the last part of the text, where in the question-answer format a squeeze of all the most important is given.

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What is an express bet?

An express bet containing several outcomes. There can be two of them, or maybe forty - at the request of the bettor. The odds of the outcomes in express bets are multiplied among themselves, creating an impressive total odds. But if at least one event in the multi bet loses, the entire bet will also lose.

Express bet predictions: an example

We make predictions for football: we make bets on the outcomes of the ⅛ final of Euro 2020 - the victory of the Netherlands, F (0) on Belgium and the non-loss of Croatia in the regular time of the match. Select the "Express" bet type. As we can see, the three outcomes are combined into one bet with a total odds of 7.08. It was calculated by multiplying the odds for all outcomes: 1.64 x 1.72 x 2.51 = 7.08. With a bet amount of 10,000 rubles, and if all predictions pass, we get a payment of 70,802 rubles. But if at least one event loses, the whole engine will burn out.

Such a bet can contain selections for any sport (not just football), any league, any event and any market will do. The main thing is that the outcomes do not overlap with each other, are not interconnected.

How return outcomes are calculated in the express?

In our example, there is one bet that implies a return - this is F (0) on Belgium. In case of a draw in regular time, this bet will be refunded with odds of 1.00, but the express bet will live. If the outcomes for the other events pass, then the calculation will be as follows: 1.64 x 1 x 2.51 = 4.12 and from the bet amount of 10,000 rubles the player will receive an incomplete payment of 41,200 rubles.

Varieties of express trains

Usually, the press is named by the number of outcomes included in their composition:

1. Predictions for two events - a double;
2. Predictions for three events - a tee;
3. Predictions for four events - a quadruple;
4. Predictions for five outcomes - five;
5. Predictions for six outcomes - six.

And so on. What else can this type of bet be called?

1. Press is just an abbreviation for express.
2. A steam locomotive (or chain) is a type of press in which each subsequent event begins after the end of the previous one. Below we will analyze examples of how to use such bets.
3. Footcloth (sheet) is an express bet with a huge number of events in the lineup. The chances of such a bet entering are scanty, but they are very fond of collecting popanovs.
4. Popanovoz is a long express, containing only predictions for “sure” outcomes of the event with scanty odds.
5. A horizontal express bet is not, in essence, an express bet, but a string of single bets. But for each subsequent bet, the entire winnings from the previous bets are placed. Therefore, in its essence, calculations, risks, odds are the same as a steam locomotive.
6. Combined outcomes of an event - as a rule, bookmakers do not allow adding related outcomes from one event to an express bet. But they themselves offer an alternative - combined bets, which, in their essence, are the same double or triple, only within the framework of one match. An example is in the picture below.

Limitations and bonuses for express bets at bookmaker offices

In general, bookmakers love it when players make predictions for express bets, and do their best to encourage them to do so. Some bookmakers give permanent bonuses for express bets, up to 70% -100% of the payout amount. However, to get such a bonus, you need to collect a “sheet” of 15-20 outcomes, the chances of winning which tend to zero.

The restrictions are mainly related to the maximum coefficient of the express, the maximum number of “cars” included in its composition, or the maximum amount of payment for one express. These limits are quite high, but still most bookmakers do not make them infinite.

Why is this done? To protect yourself from paying gigantic amounts. As you know, if one hundred thousand monkeys are imprisoned for an unlimited time for typewriters, sooner or later one of them will print War and Peace. Likewise, the players - if hundreds of thousands of popans constantly shove predictions on sheets with odds of 100+, then inevitably a tiny percentage of them will pass. But bookmakers have already cut the highest payments and have additional margin from this.

Why do players love express bets?

Everything is clear here - the opportunity to hit a huge jackpot from a small bet attracts most gamblers. For example, you can bet 100 rubles on a coefficient of 500 and receive a payment of 50,000 rubles if successful. What are the chances of getting such a payout, most players do not even think about it.

The second reason is a very exciting and gambling event, watching the gradual passage of your express. Many players make predictions for the press in order to get these emotions at a relatively low price.

The overwhelming majority of bookmaker players use multipliers in their game, but the vast majority also have a minus in the distance, so it is hardly worth focusing on them. Professional cappers do not give predictions for the press or use this type of bet very rarely.

By the way, a life hack: if you see a mailing list in which cappers regularly give predictions for football and other sports using express bets, close the page, this is pseudo cappers, league of popanov. Real cappers are well aware of the downsides of this bet and will not use it on a consistent basis.

Express bet VS Ordinary

The ordinary is the opposite of the express, both in mathematics and in the emotional component. That is why professional cappers try to avoid express bets and work strictly as single bets. Forecasts for single bets have a much lower level of influence of luck, there is a lower margin, you can more accurately determine the probability and the presence of value. There is also much less profit from a single bet.

The press predictions have the opposite picture - the impact of luck is overwhelming, the margin is inflated to the point of obscurity, it is very easy to make a mistake in the aggregate determination of probabilities and miss out on value. But the profit from a separate bet is limited only by the bookmaker's limits.

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To put it quite simply, express bets are for fun and excitement, and single predictions are great for fundamental correct betting.

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Why do bookmakers love express trains?

Now we come to the most interesting topic: why bookmakers benefit from the press, and why do they encourage players to make such bets? It's very simple - it's about the margin. In a multi bet, the margin is multiplied with the number of bet outcomes. That is, if the margin of 5% is laid down in the single, then in the five it will be equal to 25%. This is exactly how much the bettor gives from each won bet to the bookmaker as a commission.

Sometimes the margin is even higher than 100%. For example, a player makes predictions for smallmarket outcomes of an event with a margin level of 10%, collects them into a locomotive of fifteen cars. The margin in this case will be 150%, but how is this possible? Elementary - in this case, the player is simply guaranteed to be in the red, and, most likely, he will never even reach the cherished goal.

Let's say the bettor takes equally probable markets and puts 100 rubles each on such an express bet. How often will he win on average? It is easy to estimate 50% to the 15th power - the chance of success is ~ 0.003%. That is, every 33333 multiple bet will win on average. Let's say a player is quite wealthy, obsessed with his idea and churns out such predictions by a hundred every day. He gets lucky about once every 11 months. But how much will he get?

The odds of an express of fifteen equally probable outcomes with a 10% margin will be about 7,331. In total, the bettor will receive a payout of about 733 thousand rubles. But how much did he spend before that on his predictions? 100 x 33,333 = 3,333,300 rubles, betting 10,000 rubles daily. And if he has only a million rubles allocated for bets? Then, most likely, he will not wait at all for the desired win.

Okay, this is an example that is too exaggerated and out of touch with reality. Consider the average situation - 5% margin and five-way press predictions. The total margin of such an express will be "only" 25%, which a priori means a remote loss of -25%, if you do not look for values ​​and do not bet on unprofitable odds a priori.

Take a calculator and calculate. The bet is 300 rubles, the average multiplier is 1.9 to the fifth power = 24.76. Chance of winning: 50% to the fifth degree, ~ 3.12%. That is, one of thirty-two will win (100 / 3.12). Costs for 32 such express trains: 300 x 32 = 9 600 rubles. Express exhaust: 300 x 24.76 = 7 428 rubles. In total, the loss is 2,172 rubles from 32 such bets.

And if the sum of one bet is not 300, but 3,000 rubles? Then the loss in money is multiplied by 10 and amounts to 21,720 rubles from each "cycle" on average.

Yes, of course, you can get lucky and you will be able to win two such express in the first ten bets. Or even get a win in the first two in a row. But there is an even bigger trap - which player is able to stop with such luck? No one. Bettor will smell "easy money" and will start pushing such bets with even more enthusiasm. But at a distance, he will inevitably come to a distribution of about "one in thirty-two" "and remain in the red. Miracles don't happen, just a mathematics.

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In general, why all these long calculations - it is much more profitable for bookmakers to receive a multiply increased margin from an express, than a single one from a single bet. Therefore, they advertise this type of bet, boldly give bonuses on it and are happy when they have another client who loves express predictions. In addition, as mentioned above, the maximum payout threshold is often limited, and this is an additional margin on the most severe drifts.

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Why shouldn't you bet express bets?

The first and main point we analyzed in detail in the last subsection - the margin, which is multiplied with the number of selections in the express. It hurts a player's pocket even if he makes predictions for doubles-tees. And when drawing up the "sheets" it may not have that negative expectation, but generally guarantee a drain in the first roll of the bankroll.

The second point, which few people think about, is the probability of winning. If we are talking about predictions for fives containing equally probable outcomes of the event, then the chance of each winning is about 3.12%. This means that, on average, such express bets enter in the amount of one out of thirty-two. But this does not mean that they will always enter in that order.

The variance of such bets is simply huge and sometimes you can wait for success for months or even years without receiving a return for one hundred, two hundred, five hundred, and even more rates. It all depends on how often the bettor makes predictions. If he makes ten such bets a day, then it is almost guaranteed that he will win at least once a month or two. Because of the margin, this will not cover his expenses for the press, but at the moment it will bring tangible profit.

But if a player makes such predictions a couple of times a week (ten times a month), then the expectation of winning may drag on for six months or even a year. All this time he will empty one hundred square meters and in a year these "kopecks" will be collected in 10-12 thousand rubles, which could be used more rationally. And more often than not, the player will simply stop waiting for a win, become disappointed in this approach, and score on all the funds that were previously drained.

And yes, we're still talking about fives. The odds of winning an express from ten such outcomes are 0.01%, and it will only come in once for ten thousand repetitions on average.

The third point is directly related to value and correct betting. A rational approach to betting implies the presence of value (value) in each of the affixed outcomes of the event. Finding such outcomes is not an easy task, and it is almost impossible to find them regularly in sufficient quantity for long express trains.

Recreational players do not think about this aspect at all and shove all the predictions in a row into their footcloths. They are very fond of predictions for the victories of overloaded favorites with a priori unfavorable odds, bets at random and just take “what they like”, regardless of the quotes. All this creates an additional “commission” in the parlay.

If you make predictions for the odds of 1.60 at 50% probability, you will never win. And if you combine such outcomes of an event into a locomotive and multiply the margin, then it becomes just a wildly unprofitable event.

Some more calculations for this example:

1. Probability of a twin = 25% with odds of 2.56
2. Probability of a tee = 12.5% ​​with odds of 4.1
3. Probability of a quad = 6.25% with odds of 6.55
4. Probability of a five = 3, 12% with odds 10.50

Let us recall how the value of a bet is determined. You need to multiply the coefficient by the probability of passage. If the result is higher than one, the rate is profitable. If lower, then no. The greater the calculated difference with one, the more profitable or, conversely, the more unprofitable the rate. We consider:

1. 2.56 х 25% = 0,64
2. 4.1 х 12,5% = 0,51
3. 6.55 х 6,25% = 0,41
4. 10,5 х 3,12% = 0,33

What do we see? Even such a double is already monstrously unprofitable, and then the disadvantage grows in arithmetic progression as each subsequent outcome is added to the express bet.

And even if you play with cautious small presses with a safety net and are looking for really valuable outcomes and predictions, then, with a large turnover, it is quite easy to make a mistake and miss out on value. If you do this systematically, then the loss in the distance will be inevitable.

How to place the express bets correctly?

That's right - don't put them at all. But if you really want to try, then here are some recommendations that will help you minimize the damage.

1. Minimize the number of outcomes in your express trains. Ideally, do not raise them higher than two or three. It is definitely not worth collecting sheets of 7-8 or more outcomes in one express. The chances of winning such a footcloth are scanty, and the margin will take half of the potential profit.

1. Select event outcomes with value. This is incredibly important when making bets in single bets, but in express bets this importance increases significantly. All your forecasts should have a decent margin of value to cover the multiplied margin.

1. One of the reasons to bet with small expresses is to insure the outcome of the event. If you are not sure about the victory of the team or the total over 2.5, then it is permissible to insure the outcomes of the event and combine them into a locomotive by making predictions for F1 (0) + TB (1.5).

1. Use bookmaker bonuses and play at bookmakers that encourage such bets. For example, BC "Olimp" has a permanent 5% bonus for any press (football and any other sports, as well as e-sports), Pin-Up and Bet365 give up to 100% bonus for the longest press (football, hockey , basketball, e-sports), and Betboom, Pari Match and Baltbet increase the payout amount by 10-15% for the selected press of the day (hockey, football, e-sports).

When else is it appropriate to play express?

Using a booster outcome. If a cunning bookmaker does not want to give a decent limit on the chosen outcome of the event, you can add another small odds to it and create an express. The booster coefficient should be very modest, and the outcomes of this event themselves should be super probable. The limit will immediately rise sharply. Also, such forecasts should be clearly verified in terms of probabilities and value.

Forking with express bets. You can find two surebets for two bookmakers and make a bet on the selected outcomes by express. For example, "P1-P1" for tennis in the first office and "P2-P2" in the second. Further, depending on the result of the first game, we insure the second locomotive with an equalizing ordinar and make a profit in any development of events.

It will be easier to understand using an example:

Odds for all outcomes 2.2, create two doubles of 1,000 rubles, the total odds of each are 4.84. If “W1” played in the first match, then our double is alive in the first office, and lost in the second. Now in the second office we make a bet on a single “P2” in the second game for 2,200 rubles for the same odds 2.2. In total, at the exit we have 4,840 rubles in each office, and the expenses amounted to 4,200 rubles, and we have 640 rubles (about 15%) of guaranteed net profit.

"Protivokhod" system. It looks like a fork, but here we just initially create a locomotive (namely a locomotive, it is important that each subsequent event starts after the end of the previous one) from two or three outcomes. If the first outcomes of the event pass, then there is an excellent opportunity to create a surebet, insuring the last outcome. You can start insuring the outcomes from the second, but the profit in this case will be less.

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Express FAQ

- What are express trains?

This is a bet made on more than one outcome from different events combined by one odds. For the express bet to play, all bets in it must also come in.

- How to calculate the press win?

You need to multiply the odds of all the outcomes included in it and multiply by the amount of the bet. Outcome - winnings, the amount of payment that the player will receive if all outcomes of the event pass. If at least one of them fails, the entire multi bet will lose.

- Are there refunds?

Yes, this is possible. If the express includes a return outcome or outcomes, for example, F (0) or TB (2), then when the result is included, this outcome (or outcomes) will be calculated with a coefficient of 1.0. This can also happen if a match from the express train is canceled, postponed or not finished. The express rate continues to live, but its overall coefficient decreases.

- What else can be called express?

Press, steam locomotive, sheet, footcloth, pop locomotive, combo rate, chain. { {1}}

- What are the limitations of multi bets?

As a rule, you cannot add related outcomes from one event to one multi bet. But at the same time, you can add combined bets that are offered by many bookmakers. Also, most bookmakers have restrictions on the amount of the maximum payout, the maximum odds or the number of selections in the press.

Thus, bookmakers insure themselves against the payment of especially huge winnings, but at the same time they are very fond of this type of bet and in every possible way push players to conclude an express bet - they give bonuses, various insurances, etc.

- Why does the bookmaker need this?

have additional margin within the same bet. In the express bet, the margin of each outcome of an event is multiplied with the number of outcomes and summed up. The whole mechanism is described in detail in this material a little higher.

- Is it worth collecting express trains?

Depends on why. If the goal is to have fun, and you don’t mind the money, then it’s worth it. Playing express trains is akin to visiting a casino, the factor of luck comes to the fore here, and the factor of skill is leveled. Express bets are best avoided in correct betting. Or apply them pointwise in appropriate situations, as professional cappers do. This material contains a section on the correct use of express bets.

- Can you briefly talk about situations that are appropriate for an express?

It is appropriate to collect two (well, maximum, three) meaningful outcomes of the event, insure them and combine them into an express. It is appropriate to add a booster coefficient, turning an ordinary into an express, if the bookmaker does not allow you to bet as much as you want. There are also a number of tactics that allow you to play profitably on express bets - betting with express bets, the Counter-move system.

- Which is more profitable, an express bet or an ordinary?

Definitely an ordinary. In a single bet, you can determine the probability and value much more accurately, the margin there is several times less, and the chance of entry is several times greater. In the express, everything is strictly the opposite.

- What are the advantages then in the express?

The main advantage is that you can get a huge win by betting little money. This is what attracts millions of players to make such bets. It is exciting and reckless, it gives rushes of adrenaline and emotions.

At the same time, few people think about the real probability of getting a win on a sheet with a coefficient of 100. More often than not, this is not even 1% (as one might think), but much less due to the multiplied margin, unimportant outcomes of the event in the composition and other pitfalls.

In pursuit of excitement and emotions, it is better to visit a roulette wheel in a casino - there is less margin, you do not need to bother with the value of the outcomes, and the same probabilities are static and easily calculated.

- In general , are express trains evil?

Again, it depends on the goals you are pursuing. If you want to have fun and are ready to pay for it, please bet. The press entertains perfectly, the sea of ​​adrenaline in the process, and unreal euphoria in the event of a call. But if your goal is correct betting and making a profit from the bets, then express bets should be bypassed by the tenth road.