What were the bets on the winners of the 2020-2021 Champions League?
Before the start of the new Champions League draw, let's recall what odds bookmakers offered for the Champions League 2020-2021, and how it all ended up in the end.
Champions League odds
The main favorite according to the bookmakers before the start of the tournament was Bayern, the winner of the previous Champions League. The odds of 6.00 were given that they would win this tournament, which corresponds to a probability of about 17%. This is not too small considering the large number (31 teams) of other contenders. About the same, but slightly more (about 6.5), were given to the English club "Manchester City".
As a result, the Germans were eliminated in the quarterfinals from PSG. But "Man City" met the expectations of the bookmakers, and reached the final. But there they lost to London Chelsea, where before the start of the tournament they gave a coefficient of 23. That is, the chances of the Blues for a trophy were estimated at just over 4%. Roughly equal with Atletico Madrid and Manchester United.
Among the top favorites for the Champions League 2020-2021 were also considered:
- Liverpool - odds 7 (probability 14%) - took first place in the group (13 points), easily passed Leipzig in the 1/8 finals, but were eliminated at the next stage from Real Madrid (1: 3 match away , 0: 0 at home).
- PSG - coefficient 8.5 (probability 12%) - took first place in the group (12 points). In the 1/8 finals, they destroyed Barcelona (5: 2 on aggregate), then defeated Bayern with extra goals away, and lost in the semifinals to Manchester City (1: 2 at home and 0: 2 away).
- Real Madrid - odds 10 (10% probability) - took first place in the group (10 points), confidently passed Atalanta in the 1/8 finals, then took out Liverpool, but lost in the semifinals to the future winners of Chelsea »(1: 1 home and 0: 2 away).
- Barcelona - coefficient 11.00 (probability 9%) - finished second in the group after Juventus (15 points) and quite sensationally flew to the 1/8 finals from PSG, losing 1: 4 at home.
- Juventus - odds 14 (chances 7%) - won the group (15 points), but in the first round of the playoffs they were knocked out sensationally by Porto (3: 2 at home and 1: 2 away).
- Atlético - 21 odds (4.8% probability) - finished second in the group behind Bayern (9 points), eliminated in the first round of the playoffs against Chelsea (0-3 on aggregate).
- Manchester United - coefficient 22 (chances 4.5%) - could not even make it out of the group, took third place after PSG and Leipzig, and went to the Europa League.
All these teams were quoted above Chelsea, but only Real and PSG were able to enter the top four, the rest left the Champions League 2020-2021 tournament even earlier. Many eminent clubs - Barcelona, Atlético, Juventus - did not even make it through the first round of the Champions League playoffs. And MJ did not leave the group at all.
All this shows us two things:
- Long-term rates are highly unpredictable. Even the bookmakers, who have been in the business for years, are unable to predict all the plot twists and turns in the sport.
- On long-term bets, you can make great money by making x10, x20 or even more of the original bet. The main thing is not to be afraid and to conduct a competent, high-quality analysis of the chances of all applicants.
Winning the outright markets takes a fair amount of luck and, of course, the ability to find underestimated events. After all, it is not necessary to place bets on the winner of the entire tournament. You can put on the entry of an underappreciated team to the final, semi-final or simply from the group (more than a dozen were offered at the exit of Leipzig from the group with PSG and Manchester United last year). Or for the best striker of the Champions League - for Lewandowski in the year before last the coefficient was around 15, and there is nothing to say about Holland this year.
In the end, only one thing is important - if the majority of your bets contain value, then you are literally doomed to a remote profitable game.